When last I made a Super Bowl Pick, I nailed it exactly.
My rationale at the time was basically that every Tom Brady playoff game to that point had been won, and by three points, except games against Indy and Pittsburgh; that the Pats had won every NFL game ever held in February; and that it wouldn't be very high scoring, but each team would get their knocks in.
A lot has changed since then. Brady has still never lost a Super Bowl, but he has since lost both a divisional playoff and conference championship game. They've won games against non-Colts and non-Steelers teams by more than 3 points. And they haven't lost in over a year, while racking up the most points ever scored in a season.
The first two Patriots games this season were won 38-14. Their average points for/against is 37/17 (36/17 including playoffs). While they have not been doing as well lately, having more problems than at the beginning of the season, I think the team is poised to break out the stomping boots. They'll generally control the Giants, who will have a few successful drives, but the day will belong to the Pats, 34-17.
Cross-posted on <pudge/*>.