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Computer Weekly lists its five technologies to watch for next year. The list includes Open Source Software (again).
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Great reply. I only have one teeny side comment:
Why are things like ColdFusion and PHP so popular now? Because Perl was popular before. It will come around again, maybe with a different language or technology, but people swing back and forth between flexibility and ease. How long ago was COBOL created?
I think the example of COBOL weakens your argument. Consider the era in which it was created. New language technologies weren't coming around the way that they are now and COBOL had no serious competi
Interesting quote listed in the article:
People are voting with their hearts, not their heads. The total cost of ownership of open source is open to question. It is a bit like the move from mainframe to server-based computing: it may cost less to buy, but in the long-term, it may cost more to manage and maintain.
This is the bugaboo that open-source software has to overcome, but it frequently succeeds. From personal experience, I can tell you that I would much rather administer Apache than IIS. IIS has this annoying habit of "binding" functionality in such a way that changing one setting can silently reset others. No such problem with Apache.
That illustrates why I think the TCO argument is flawed: these products will get cheaper to manage and maintain when enough people use them and they have a chance to mature. If people refuse to take risks because something is unknown, it will probably remain unknown and immature. Windows wouldn't be so easy to use if no one had used it.
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