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btilly (5037)

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Journal of btilly (5037)

Saturday September 12, 2009
02:16 AM

Kelly Criterion

[ #39616 ]

For personal reasons I've been writing up an explanation of the Kelly Criterion. That is a rule for how to optimize your betting strategy if you find a bet that is favorable to you. However I want to go beyond the rule (which is well-known by gamblers) and get at more subtle issues caused by complicated betting outcomes, choices of multiple bets, and worrying about how to trade off short term volatility with long term returns.

The explanation isn't done yet and the calculator doesn't have the optimization feature that I really want to add. However I have enough there to look for feedback.

Please keep in mind that I am targeting gamblers who are comfortable playing with numbers and know something about probability, but whose advanced math skills may be rusty to non-existent.

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